Juba, South Sudan – A delicate peace agreement that ended years of brutal civil war in South Sudan is now hanging by a thread following the arrest of key opposition leader Riek Machar. The development has raised alarms both locally and internationally, with growing fears that Africa’s youngest nation may be on the brink of returning to widespread violence.

South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of struggle, has been beset by instability rooted in ethnic divisions and political rivalries. The country plunged into civil war in 2013 and again in 2016, with violence claiming an estimated 400,000 lives before a tenuous peace accord was signed in 2018.

The current political crisis centers on a power-sharing coalition government led by President Salva Kiir and his longtime adversary, Vice President Riek Machar, leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). Their uneasy alliance, born from the 2018 peace deal, is now under severe strain.

This week, Machar was arrested by government forces, a move that the SPLM/A-IO says has “effectively nullified” the peace agreement. The party condemned the arrest, calling it a betrayal that undermines hopes for lasting peace and political stability.

The arrest came on the heels of growing tensions, including the recent dismissal and detention of other SPLM/A-IO officials and the deployment of Ugandan troops into South Sudanese territory. President Kiir reportedly invited the Ugandan forces to assist in combatting local militia groups specifically the Nuer-affiliated White Army, which has clashed with government forces in the town of Nasir. These events have resulted in dozens of deaths, according to local reports.

Machar has strongly criticized the Ugandan military intervention, calling it a breach of the peace agreement. In a letter to the UN Secretary-General dated March 23, he described the action as a direct threat to South Sudan’s sovereignty and peace.

On Friday, government authorities confirmed Machar’s arrest, accusing him of inciting the White Army to attack a military base and a UN helicopter during an evacuation mission. The White Army, however, denies any affiliation with Machar or his political faction.

South Sudan’s Information Minister, Michael Makuei, alleged that Machar had been “agitating for a rebellion” aimed at sabotaging planned elections and reigniting conflict. He cited intelligence reports and warned that Machar and his SPLM/A-IO allies would face investigation and possible prosecution for promoting division and tribalism.

The SPLM/A-IO has yet to respond to these accusations.

International reactions to the crisis have been swift. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric described the situation as dangerously close to full-scale conflict, warning that the country was “one step closer to collapse.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the recent clashes “darkly reminiscent” of South Sudan’s previous civil wars and urged all parties to de-escalate tensions immediately.

Western diplomatic missions have also weighed in. In a joint statement, the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the European Union delegation in South Sudan condemned the arrest and urged President Kiir to release Machar and commit to upholding the 2018 peace agreement. They also called for an immediate ceasefire between armed groups to prevent further bloodshed.

South Sudan has yet to hold a national election since independence. The transitional government was intended to lay the foundation for democratic governance, but recurring instability continues to derail progress.

As tensions rise and diplomatic efforts intensify, the people of South Sudan watch anxiously, hoping their fragile peace does not once again dissolve into devastating conflict.