High-level discussions between senior delegations from the United States and Russia in Saudi Arabia may mark a pivotal moment in the effort to end the protracted war in Ukraine. During nearly five hours of negotiations, representatives from both countries reportedly not only explored pathways to a potential peace settlement but also discussed prospective economic and investment opportunities that could arise from such an agreement.

While hopes for peace may be cautiously rising, the potential ramifications for Ukraine are less promising. Observers suggest that Ukraine could emerge as the primary loser in this diplomatic maneuvering, while Russian President Vladimir Putin stands to gain significantly.

For over two decades, Putin has worked tirelessly to restore Russia’s influence on the global stage, seeking to reclaim the superpower status once held by the Soviet Union. His 2005 declaration that the Soviet Union’s collapse was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century has guided his foreign policy ever since. Now, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s outreach, Putin appears closer than ever to achieving his strategic objectives.

Trump’s willingness to engage with Putin on Ukraine effectively elevates Russia’s status, granting Moscow the recognition and respect that Putin has long craved. The symbolism of Washington treating Moscow as an equal partner on such a critical issue is a clear diplomatic win for the Kremlin.

The diplomatic developments also suggest growing fractures within the Western alliance. The coalition that has maintained pressure on Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago now appears to be showing signs of strain. With Trump at the helm, the U.S. stance on Ukraine is increasingly diverging from that of the European Union and the United Kingdom.

A key indicator of this shift came last week when U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the prospect of Ukraine regaining its pre-2014 borders as “unrealistic.” This statement signals a softening of Washington’s position on Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 a move widely regarded as the beginning of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The renewed dialogue between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio further cements Russia’s re-entry onto the global stage. Meanwhile, Putin has not conceded any occupied Ukrainian territory to secure this diplomatic engagement. His steadfast approach has reinforced his image as a leader unwilling to yield to Western pressure a stance that now appears to be bearing fruit.

The anticipated meeting between Trump and Putin marks a stark reversal from the isolation Moscow experienced under former President Joe Biden. This development brings back memories of the 2018 Helsinki summit, where Putin was widely seen as having outmaneuvered Trump. According to Fiona Hill, Trump’s former senior director for European and Russian affairs, the U.S. president’s apparent willingness to believe Putin over his own intelligence analysts had alarmed many within his administration.

As preparations for the new summit unfold, Putin is unlikely to see himself as an underdog. His mere presence at the negotiating table with the U.S. president to discuss European security cements his long-standing ambition: to reestablish Russia as a preeminent power on the continent, reminiscent of the days when the Soviet Union dictated terms in European affairs alongside the United States.

For Ukraine, the unfolding diplomatic choreography may offer little solace. As Moscow and Washington engage in talks, concerns are growing that any eventual settlement could come at Kyiv’s expense, leaving the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in a precarious position.

Whether these talks ultimately lead to a lasting peace or merely a reshuffling of geopolitical influence, one thing is clear: Vladimir Putin has positioned himself as a central player in determining Europe’s future, potentially turning a brutal war into a strategic victory for the Kremlin.